On Jan. 19, the hostage and ceasefire deal between the State of Israel and the terrorist group Hamas went into effect. The deal is complex with multiple phases that negotiators hope will lead to the release of all the hostages and an end to the war. Below is a guide to the agreement and what to expect in the coming weeks.
Whether the two sides can pull off the deal is uncertain at best, mainly because there is no agreement on who should govern Gaza. Hamas seeks to stay in power, but after the October seventh attack—when they invaded southern Israel, killed some 1,200 people (mostly civilians), and took about 250 hostages—Israel is determined to dismantle them, no longer willing to contain the group as they did after their 2006 election.
How was the deal reached?
According to The Atlantic, this deal was hard won after intense negotiations in Qatar. The two sides finally reached an agreement after a series of Israeli military victories that have weakened Hamas and reshaped the power dynamics of the region. The former leader of Hamas, Yahya Al-Sinwar, who was the mastermind behind the October seventh attacks, was killed on Oct. 16, 2024. The Israeli public has put increasing pressure on the government to do all it can to get all the hostages back. Proponents of the deal have argued that with Israel’s newfound power in the region, now is the time to take the risk.
The biggest factor may have been the deadline imposed by President Donald Trump, who said if the hostages were not released by his inauguration on Jan. 20, “all hell will break out in the Middle East.” His administration showed willingness to take aggressive military action, which put additional pressure on both sides. Hamas feared they wouldn’t get a better deal under Trump, while Israel saw an opportunity to secure U.S. backing for the future (The New York Times).
The first phase includes the following steps:
A cessation of fighting in Gaza for 42 days.
The release of 33 Israeli hostages—dead and alive—
The release of 30 Palestinian prisoners for each civilian hostage and 50 for each female soldier.˛
Israeli forces will pull back to the edges of Gaza.
Displaced Gazans will be allowed to return to their homes.
Hundreds of aid trucks will be allowed into Gaza daily.
What has happened so far?
The fighting officially stopped on Jan. 19. As of Feb. 2 2025, 18 hostages have been released by Hamas, including five Thai nationals. Israel has released 583 Palestinian prisoners including some serving life sentences for deadly attacks. Aid deliveries to Gaza have increased a lot. Hundreds of trucks with food, medicine, and supplies now enter daily. Phase one is scheduled to end on March 2.
What will happen next?
Negotiators are scheduled to begin work on Phase two on Feb. 4, when they are expected to work toward three concrete goals.
A permanent ceasefire.
An exchange of remaining living hostages for more Palestinian security prisoners.
A complete withdrawal of Israeli forces.
In Phase three, the two sides are meant to work toward the return of all remaining bodies of dead hostages and the rebuilding of Gaza, which is expected to last years.
The deal’s success remains uncertain. While progress has been made, challenges remain, including whether Hamas will agree to fully disarm and how Gaza will be governed once Israeli forces withdraw.
