Asteroid 2024 YR4, also called the “City Killer”, has raised concerns about potential Earth impact. First discovered on Dec. 27, 2024, YR4 has posed a lot of questions about what happens if an asteroid hits Earth. It was detected by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS), which is a NASA funded program based in Chile. Using their ground based telescopes, they predicted a small but serious chance of it hitting Earth on Dec. 22, 2032. Though the percentage was only 1.20%, it was significant enough to keep an eye on it. Since then, there have been many updates surrounding its probability of hitting Earth.
According to New Scientist, there was originally a one-in-83 chance, but as astronomers discovered new data, they made new predictions. Consequently, an earth impact went from one-in-67, then to a one-in-53, to one-in-43, to one-in-38, all the way to one-in-32, which was its highest chance. After more data collection, NASA now predicts a 0.004% chance of impact as of Feb. 24.
The asteroid’s significant size is a big concern for astronomers. NASA says that the 2024 YR4 asteroid is around 130-300 feet across. This means that the asteroid is a “city killer”, and could destroy an entire city. According to NASA, if the size is around 130 feet, the asteroid could cause minor damage to buildings and windows. However, if this asteroid is closer to 300 feet, it could cause much more impactful damage to structures, and shatter windows in surrounding regions. However, this larger size is much less likely.
Manchester Evening News states that the regions possibly affected by this asteroid are all across South America, across the Pacific Ocean, South Asia, the Arabian Sea, and Africa. This includes countries like Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, and India. A lot of the countries possibly impacted are some of the most populated ones, posing serious issues.
If the asteroid becomes a danger to Earth, we have some defenses. NASA has defenses like the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART). This defense program is used to change the orbital path of the asteroid. However, due to the current probability of the asteroid, we probably will not need to use these types of deflection programs.
Despite the probability of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth going down significantly, the chance of it hitting the moon has gone up to 1.7%. Though that would only leave a crater and make some debris, and most likely would not affect us too much.
Though 2024 YR4 does not pose any serious issue to Earth, it does raise questions about other potentially dangerous asteroids in the future. For one, how can we find these asteroids, and predict their course? According to NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, finding the path of these objects is possible, because astronomers take photos minutes apart, and compare where the asteroid was in each photo. The background of these photos are mainly stars and galaxies which are not moving, so it would be easy to see which objects have different positions in each photo.
Astronomers are able to detect so many asteroids with their technology, and yet, we have not detected a seriously dangerous asteroid yet. Why, though? One big reason is that Jupiter, the fifth and biggest planet in our solar system, protects us. Jupiter is a huge planet, and that means it has a lot of mass and in turn, a lot of gravity. This immense gravity pulls potentially dangerous asteroids towards it, or toward a different path. Sometimes, however, it can do the opposite and “slingshot” these objects into the inner solar system.
Assuming 2024 YR4 maintains a 0.004% chance of hitting Earth, humanity is most likely in the clear from YR4 causing destruction to Earth. However, the data constantly changes, so it is important to remember that this information was provided as early as March, and may not be reliable in a few months. Along with that, when gathering new data, make sure to get it from a reliable source, like NASA. This link brings you to a page with more information about the asteroid, along with more interesting information.
